{"id":696,"date":"2014-03-21T22:53:21","date_gmt":"2014-03-21T22:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cybiosec.org\/?p=696"},"modified":"2014-03-21T22:53:21","modified_gmt":"2014-03-21T22:53:21","slug":"civilisation-irreversible-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/2014\/03\/21\/civilisation-irreversible-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"civilisation >> 'irreversible collapse' ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Can complex, advanced civilizations really collapse?
\nExcerpts from S. Motesharrei and E. Kalnay, \u201cA Minimal Model for Human and Nature Interaction,\u201d 2012.
\nmodern civilization, armed with its greater technological capacity, scientific knowledge, and energy resources, will be able to survive and endure whatever crises historical societies succumbed to.
\nIn this paper we attempt to model collapse mathematically in a more general way.
\nHuman And Nature DYnamics (HANDY) is based on the classical predator-prey model.
\nWe can think of the human population as the \u201cpredator\u201d, while nature (the natural resources of the surrounding environment) can be taken as the \u201cprey\u201d, depleted by humans. Based on the long history of collapse of civilizations discussed in the introduction, we separated the population into \u201cElites\u201d and \u201cCommoners\u201d, and introduced a variable for accumulated wealth. We have also added a different dimension of predation whereby Elites \u201cprey\u201d on the production of wealth by Commoners.
\nAs a result, HANDY consists of just four prediction equations: two for the two classes of population, Elites and Commoners, one for the natural resources or Nature, and one for the accumulated Wealth.
\nWe will discuss three sets of scenarios (graph are ‘Soft Landing to Equilibrium’):<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Egalitarian society (No-Elites)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Equitable society (with Workers and Non-Workers)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Unequal society (with Elites and Commoners)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

         
        \n 
        \nThe model was also used to find a sustainable equilibrium value and the maximum carrying capacity within each of these three types of societies.
        \nIn sum, results of our experiments, indicate that either one of the two features apparent in historical societal collapses \u2014over-exploitation of natural resources and strong economic stratification\u2014 can independently result in a complete collapse.
        \n 
        \n=> Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at the maximum carrying capacity, if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed equitably.
        \nAlso: http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/earth-insight\/2014\/mar\/14\/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Can complex, advanced civilizations really collapse? Excerpts from S. Motesharrei and E. Kalnay, \u201cA Minimal Model for Human and Nature Interaction,\u201d 2012. modern civilization, armed with its greater technological capacity, scientific knowledge, and energy resources, will be able to survive and endure whatever crises historical societies succumbed to. In this paper we attempt to model …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[58,61,152,182],"class_list":["post-696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inspiration-misc","tag-civilisation","tag-collapse","tag-modelling","tag-predator-prey"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/696\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ladam.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}